Antananarivo, Madagascar – October 12, 2025: A high-stakes confrontation between President Andry Rajoelina’s government and a key military formation has thrust Madagascar into its gravest political crisis since 2009. An elite army unit’s public support for youth-led protests over water and electricity shortages has prompted presidential accusations of an unlawful power grab, while regional and international bodies call for calm and dialogue.
On Saturday, officers from the Army Personnel Administration Center (CAPSAT) – the same unit that helped President Rajoelina seize power in a 2009 coup – issued a video declaration backing three-week-old demonstrations in Antananarivo. “Security forces must not follow blindly unlawful orders,” the CAPSAT contingent said, announcing that “all orders of the Malagasy army – whether land, air or naval – will originate from CAPSAT headquarters”.
The demonstrations, which began on September 25 as peaceful student-led marches demanding relief from frequent power outages and water shortages, have since evolved into calls for the president’s resignation, an apology for violence against demonstrators, and the dissolution of both the Senate and the electoral commission.
Madagascar’s presidency responded on Sunday with a statement condemning “an attempted illegal and forcible seizure of power,” asserting that the move violated the Constitution and democratic principles. President Rajoelina urged all branches of the security forces to unite in defending constitutional order and national sovereignty.
A Reuters observer reported three people injured by gunfire near the CAPSAT barracks on Sunday, although bystanders later indicated there was no active fighting at the scene. International media have highlighted the unprecedented scale of the standoff, with CAPSAT troops marching into the capital alongside protest crowds, some even joining demonstrators in May 13th Square – a historic site of political upheaval.
AU and UN Urge Restraint
The African Union Commission’s chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, issued a statement expressing “deep concern” at the political and security developments. He called on all Malagasy stakeholders to exercise calm and restraint, respect fundamental rights, and work towards peaceful, consensual solutions within the constitutional framework.
Similarly, the United Nations has reported at least 22 deaths and around 100 injuries resulting from the protests, though the government disputes these figures, with President Rajoelina stating that 12 fatalities involved “looters and vandals”.
South Africa’s foreign affairs ministry joined calls for all parties to respect democratic processes and avoid violence, while the Southern African Development Community (SADC) announced it would dispatch envoys to Antananarivo to facilitate dialogue and assess stability risks.
Despite government assurances that President Rajoelina remains in Antananarivo and continues to manage national affairs alongside Prime Minister Emil Rakotoniaina, social media speculation has circulated unverified reports of his departure, prompting the presidency to clarify his presence in the country via an official X post.
Presidential Response and Next Steps
In response to the mounting pressure, President Rajoelina reshuffled his security leadership on October 6, appointing General Thierry Randriambololona as defense minister and citing the need to address service failures and public discontent. Prime Minister Rakotoniaina told state television that the government is “fully prepared to listen” and engage with youth, labor unions, and military representatives.
Civil society organizations have called for an independent commission to investigate the causes of the protests and the CAPSAT defection, urging transparency on both infrastructure failures and the chain of command within the armed forces. Opposition figures insist that only genuine structural reforms – not cosmetic ministerial changes – will restore public confidence.
As night falls over Antananarivo, loyalist troops and CAPSAT officers remain in a tense stand-off, while Madagascar’s youth-driven protest movement watches closely. The resolution of this constitutional crisis will hinge on the ability of national and regional institutions to mediate a peaceful outcome without resorting to force.
Concluding Quote:
“Our fight is for the rights of every Malagasy citizen to basic services and dignity,” declared a student leader at a protest encampment in Antananarivo, “We will not abandon our demand for accountability and constitutional order.”
