Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo – October 6, 2025: President Félix Tshisekedi has delivered an ultimatum to the global mining industry: exporters who violate the Democratic Republic of Congo’s new cobalt quota system will face permanent expulsion from the world’s dominant cobalt market. The decree marks a watershed moment as Africa’s largest economy asserts unprecedented control over a mineral essential to the global energy transition.
The DRC, which produces approximately 220,000 tonnes of cobalt annually—representing 70-75% of global output—will end its eight-month export freeze on October 16, implementing quotas that restrict annual exports to just 96,600 tonnes through 2027. For the remainder of 2025, miners can export only 18,125 tonnes, with Tshisekedi warning of “exemplary sanctions” including permanent market exclusion for violators.
The quota system represents a dramatic reduction from recent production levels. CMOC Group, the world’s largest cobalt miner, alone shipped approximately 96,000 tonnes in 2024—essentially consuming the entire annual quota that will be available starting in 2026. The Chinese state-owned enterprise, which owns 80% of the Tenke Fungurume mine and 71.25% of the Kisanfu operation, faces the prospect of slashing exports by more than half.
The export restrictions have already triggered a 170% price rebound since the February ban took effect, with cobalt climbing from nine-year lows to more sustainable levels that enable domestic investment. Tshisekedi’s cabinet minutes reveal the system aims to end “predatory strategies” by international buyers who have flooded markets with excess supply.
Chinese Mining Dominance Under Siege
The quota system directly challenges China’s stranglehold over Congolese cobalt production, where Chinese companies control 17 of the largest mining operations in a country holding 67% of global reserves. CMOC Group’s rapid expansion doubled cobalt output to 114,200 tonnes in 2024, contributing to the supply glut that crashed prices to their lowest levels since 2016.
Chinese firms IXM and Glencore declared force majeure on cobalt deliveries during the export ban, highlighting the vulnerability of supply chains dependent on DRC sources. China imports an average 16,200 tonnes of cobalt monthly from the DRC, but these flows plummeted over 60% in June as the export restrictions took hold.
The crackdown coincides with escalating conflict in mineral-rich eastern Congo, where Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the provincial capitals of Goma in January and Bukavu in February 2025. The rebel group now controls commercial routes between Rwanda and the Kivu provinces, generating estimated monthly revenues of $800,000 from taxes on coltan mining while facilitating illicit mineral exports through Rwanda.
UN experts confirm thousands of Rwandan soldiers operate in the DRC with “de facto control” over M23 operations, contradicting Kigali’s denials of involvement. The rebels have consolidated administrative control over captured territories, appointing new authorities and organizing mass rallies to project legitimacy.
African Resource Sovereignty Movement Accelerates
Congo’s cobalt offensive reflects the broader implementation of the Africa Mining Vision, adopted by the African Union in 2009 to ensure “transparent, equitable and optimal exploitation of mineral resources to underpin broad-based sustainable growth”. The continental framework explicitly rejects the “neo-colonial model of extraction” that prioritizes raw material exports over domestic value addition.
The DRC’s strategy deliberately forces local cobalt processing rather than shipping raw hydroxide for Chinese refinement. ARECOMS, the state minerals regulator, has reserved 9,600 tonnes of annual export quotas as “strategic allocations” to support domestic processing initiatives and reward companies investing in local facilities.
Guy-Robert Lukama, chairman of state mining company Gecamines, emphasized that sustainable pricing is essential for developing refining capacity, noting that previous low prices made domestic investment impossible. The quota system serves dual objectives of price stabilization and industrial policy advancement.
Continental Mining Transformation
The timing coincides with failed US-brokered peace negotiations, as Congo and Rwanda rejected a Regional Economic Integration Framework designed to make their mining sectors more attractive to Western investors. This rejection signals Kinshasa’s determination to chart an independent path rather than accepting externally imposed frameworks.
Zimbabwe has similarly restricted raw lithium ore exports to force domestic processing, attracting significant Chinese investment in local facilities. Ghana launched its state-controlled GoldBod entity with exclusive rights over artisanal gold exports, while Botswana prioritized local diamond processing in its renewed De Beers partnership.
The continental shift reflects growing African assertiveness in reclaiming control over resources that historically enriched foreign powers while leaving producing nations impoverished. As ministers responsible for mineral resources emphasized in adopting the Africa Mining Vision, the continent’s abundant mineral wealth must serve African development rather than external extraction.
Congo’s cobalt quota system represents more than market intervention—it embodies Africa’s rejection of colonial-era extraction models in favor of resource sovereignty that prioritizes domestic transformation over foreign profit maximization. With global battery demand surging and alternative cobalt sources limited, Tshisekedi’s ultimatum signals a fundamental power shift in critical mineral markets that could reshape the global energy transition.
